Rating City’s chances of winning the 2024/25 Premier League
Manchester City, who are the defending champions of the Premier League, will be looking to keep their firm grip on the title in the 2024/25 season.
Pep Guardiola’s side have won the Premier League in each of the past four seasons – a record. The Citizens have continued their domination of English football and they will be looking to do it a step further. Meanwhile, a chasing pack including an Arsenal side that has pushed them very close in the past two campaigns is expected to challenge them.
Based on the odds from the bookmakers so far, the Citizens are favourites for the title once again and it will take an extra effort to dethrone them. As expected, the demand for Manchester City tickets will be on the high and fans are advised to get them quickly enough.
Here is an analysis of their chances to extend their dominance.
Man City’s summer transfer window business so far
As of the time of writing, the Citizens have been largely quiet for most of it as we look forward to the start of the new season. Guardiola’s side have only snapped up Brazilian winger Savinho from Troyes, while Julian Alvarez is on his way out to Atletico Madrid.
In addition, City have mainly been focusing on trimming their squad, with five players going out — all of whom were either squad players or loanees making permanent moves away. Tommy Doyle (£4.3m), Taylor Harwood-Bellis (£20m), Lewis Fiorini (Undisclosed), Sergio Gomez (£8.4m), and Liam Delap (£15m).
Winger Savinho has been brought in to provide competition for Jeremy Doku, Jack Grealish, and Phil Foden. The Brazilian completed the second most take-one of any player while on loan at Girona in 2023/24 (104), a number only West Ham’s Muhammed Kudus (124) could beat. He is expected to add more width and trickery to City’s wing play which was highly underwhelming last season.
Although more departures are expected, the Citizens will be keeping a chunk of their squad from recent seasons and that will give them the edge over a lot of other challengers including Arsenal.
Manchester City under Pep Guardiola in the Premier League
Pep Guardiola has spent eight years in Manchester since he arrived back in 2016. The Spaniard has won a total of 17 trophies since moving there including six Premier League titles – most by any City manager. He is also the club’s most successful manager.
In terms of league titles, his haul of six is the joint-second most of any coach ever to take charge of an English side. To show how excellent he’s been, Guardiola has only missed out on top spot in two seasons; he has smashed records aplenty on his way to this remarkable level of dominance.
Back in May, Guardiola reached 300 Premier League games in charge with a winning record that put all of the division’s greatest managers in the shade. When it comes to league titles, he has been a force. The 2023/24 triumph with City is his 12th league title in 15 seasons as a manager in a major European league, which is twice as many as the next-best gaffer since 2008.
Since Guardiola took over Manchester City, the Citizens have collected 716 points from 304 matches in those eight seasons, 59 more than the next-best side – Liverpool. Arsenal, who are in third, are 149 points behind City on 567. Spurs (552), Chelsea, and Manchester United (both 549) are the only other teams to have totalled over 500 points in those eight years.
In addition, Manchester City have accumulated at least 90 points in four seasons under Guardiola. That is more than any other side in the Premier League has managed in the league’s entire history, with Liverpool and Chelsea both hitting that mark three times. Manchester United have done it twice and Arsenal once.
Under Guardiola, City have recorded 225 wins in 304 Premier League games, 29 more than anyone else has achieved over the same period. That’s a win percentage of 74%, which is just fewer than three wins in every four games. Guardiola won 704 points in his first 300 Premier League matches, which is 70 more than the next best Jose Mourinho.
Defensively, Guardiola’s City have kept 133 clean sheets in those 304 league games under him at an average of one shutout every 2.28 outings. Five sides have kept more than 100 clean sheets in that, but no team can match City’s figure.
All of the stats above simply point to the fact that Manchester City have been dominant under Guardiola and they are still the team to beat in the Premier League title race for the 2024/25 season.
Manchester City’s chance in the Premier League
Guardiola knows that Arsenal are working so hard to get their hands on the title. Despite all that, Guardiola is still a major factor in the title race expected this season.
Guardiola’s side might start the season poorly but the final weeks of the campaign are where they usually come alive. To put into perspective, the club’s record under Guardiola in the final 15 games leading up to them being crowned champions is remarkable. In 2017/18, they won 11. The following season it was 14. In 2020/21 there were 12 victories. The season after saw another 11 wins, and last season 13. The 2023/24 saw them end the campaign unbeaten in their final 15 games featuring 12 wins and three draws.
The challengers, especially Arsenal, might have a great start but City cannot be ruled out. Therefore, City are considered to be dangerous at the turn of the year and it was not surprising that they ended the 2023/24 season with a 23-game unbeaten run and nine wins on the bounce.
Influential midfielders Rodri and Kevin De Bruyne, who were injured for an extended period last season, are expected to lead the side this campaign with Erling Halland to provide the goals. Guardiola does not have much to change in his team as most of them are still available for this coming campaign.
“The first words are for Arsenal – Liverpool as well, but especially Arsenal to push us to another level,” said Guardiola at the end of the 2023/24 season. “Before it was Liverpool that pushed us to our limits and now it has been [Arsenal] these last two seasons, especially this one. It has been an incredible season.
Based on the above, City have a great chance to win a fifth successive Premier League crown but every season is usually different. However, Arsenal will still pose a much greater challenge this term and it remains to be seen who will carry the day.
