Can Tammy Abraham make the leap in 2019/20

The 2018/19 season wasn’t exactly a smooth one for Chelsea. From questions over the manager’s playing style, to Kepa’s very public show of insubordination, to the constant speculation over Hazard’s future, there was more than enough drama to go around at the club.

Through all of that, though, they still enjoyed a successful season, winning the Europa League, reaching the League Cup final, and finishing ahead of an excellent Spurs team to claim third in the Premier League. Unfortunately for Chelsea, however, they now face an extremely challenging summer.

Chelsea’s Situation Heading into 2019/20

Chelsea’s final game of 2018/19 – the Europa League victory over Arsenal – took place on 29th May. Within a couple of weeks they had already lost their manager to Juventus, and their best player to Real Madrid. Transfer rumours continue to swirl around the likes of Willian, and there are huge question marks over returning loanees such as Tiémoué Bakayoko.

This still might all be manageable… if it weren’t for the transfer ban. In February 2019 FIFA accused Chelsea of improper transfers for under 18’s in 29 different cases, punishing them with a hefty fine and – more importantly – a two-window transfer ban. Chelsea have already tried and failed to appeal or delay the ban, and are now appealing directly to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. In case that appeal doesn’t work, they’ll be unable to sign new players until summer 2020.

How Chelsea Can Respond

For many clubs, particularly those in the hyper-competitive Premier League, this transfer ban might have seemed disastrous. Chelsea, however, have spent years amassing strength in depth. Their ‘loan army’ strategy might draw ire from fans online, but in the past couple of years alone it has allowed promising youngsters like Mason Mount, Ruben Loftus-Cheek and Tammy Abraham to develop rapidly, and even break into the England ranks.

If the transfer ban holds up, Chelsea will have no choice but to look internally for reinforcements, with previously-signed winger Christian Pulisic the only ‘new’ arrival. The likes of Loftus-Cheek and Callum Hudson-Odoi already saw first-team action last season, and will almost certainly experience plenty more in 2019/20. In addition, returning loanees like Abraham – who might otherwise have been loaned out again or sold – may end up being part of a number of players who can shine this year.

A Striking Problem

There’s no doubt about it – since Diego Costa banged in 20 goals in their 2016/17 title-winning campaign, Chelsea have had a problem up front.

Álvaro Morata proved so disappointing after his costly arrival that he was loaned out after only 18 months, and will spend all of 2019/20 at Atlético Madrid. Olivier Giroud – while still an effective link-up man – has mustered a middling 18 goals in 63 appearances since joining Chelsea, and turns 33 in September. Eden Hazard – last season’s top scorer – is already gone.

When it comes to genuine strikers leading the line in 2019/20, Chelsea have only two realistic options: Michy Batshuayi, and Tammy Abraham.

Since arriving in 2016/17 from Marseille it’s fair to say that Batshuayi has failed to convince at Stamford Bridge, despite reasonable scoring returns at Chelsea and on loan at Dortmund. Perhaps his most recent loan to Crystal Palace, in which he scored 6 goals in 13 appearances – combined with their inability to recruit – will convince Chelsea to give him one more shot. Based on recent form, though… it’s Tammy Abraham who presents a far more exciting proposition.

Can Abraham step up?

Despite still only being 21, Tammy Abraham has already proved beyond any doubt that he can score goals. Since his senior debut he’s made 133 appearances and scored 60 goals, which is a seriously good ratio for a striker so young. He passes the eye test too, having shown impressive natural predatory instincts, and his combination of a reasonable amount of pace and a long 6’3 frame cause frequent problems for defenders.

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The only question remains whether or not he can do it at the absolute top level, in the Premier League and Champions League, for a club of Chelsea’s pedigree. After all, while those scoring numbers are certainly impressive, the vast majority came in the Championship (first for Bristol City, then for Aston Villa). In his lone Premier League season on loan at Swansea, Abraham managed only 5 goals in 31 appearances.

While there’s no way to know at this stage whether he’ll be able to cut it at Chelsea, we’d tend towards optimism. Having a striker’s instinct is something which can’t be taught, and Abraham has indisputably proven he already possesses one. He’s coming off a tremendous season too, with his 25 league goals helping Aston Villa to promotion. Finally, without wanting to sound harsh, playing up top for a Swansea side about to be relegated is one thing; playing with the likes of Pulisic, Pedro, Willian and Hudson-Odoi around you is a different proposition entirely. He wants to stay in West London, and – if given the chance to do so – may well hit the 20 goal mark in 2019/20.

Betting Odds

Most online bookies don’t yet feature a Top Goalscorer market for 2019/20. It’s worth keeping an eye out for when it opens, though, as you can often get excellent odds when outright markets have just opened, before the action starts to push them around.

Some bookies however do have this market open. With British betting giant William Hill being one of them you can get your cash down on the outright market before the action kicks off and take advantage of generous William Hill offers and deals. The likes of Kane, Salah, Aguero and Aubameyang are leading the way at odds of less than 10/1. Vardy and Lacazette are nestling in at around 20/1 to 25/1, and we’d guess that Abraham would likely have similar odds. Given that he could certainly hit around 20 goals if given the starting job next season, and that the 2018/19 Golden Boot was shared by players who only managed 22 goals, Abraham would make a fine value play indeed at that kind of price.